Quick answer
Cash deadlines usually announce themselves weeks ahead. Watch for customers paying later than their terms, BAS or super being paid late, suppliers sending reminders or moving you to cash on delivery, an overdraft that never comes back to zero, personal money going into the business, and one customer making up a large share of revenue. Spotting two or more is the cue to forecast the next 90 days and plan before a hard date arrives.
Key points
- Most crunches show up in the numbers weeks before they become a deadline.
- Late-paying customers and a growing ATO balance are the two most common early signs.
- Paying bills on the due date, never before, is a quiet signal that buffers are gone.
- The ATO can report business tax debts of $100,000 or more overdue by 90 days to credit bureaus if you're not engaging.
- Two or more signs together is the moment to forecast and plan.
Ask any owner who’s had a “need it by Friday” week, and most will say the same thing afterwards: the signs were there. A customer had been slipping. The BAS from last quarter was still unpaid. The supplier’s reminder emails had changed tone. None of it was a crisis on its own. Together, they were a deadline on its way.
This guide lists ten of the most common early warning signs, why each one matters, and the first practical move when you see it.
1. Customers are paying later than their terms
What it looks like: invoices on 30-day terms getting paid at 40, then 50 days. Your aged receivables report has more in the “60+ days” column than it used to.
Why it matters: your costs don’t wait for your customers. Every extra day a customer takes is a day you’re funding their business with your cash.
First move: check who’s slipping and by how much. Call the slowest payers before the next invoice goes out, tighten terms for new work, and look at whether a large customer has a pattern — the big customer payment times guide shows how to check.
2. BAS, PAYG or super is being paid late
What it looks like: you lodge the BAS on time but pay it a few weeks late. Or you’ve set up a payment plan and the next quarter is heading the same way.
Why it matters: the ATO is the easiest creditor to put off, because the money is already in your account and nobody rings the next day. But general interest charge compounds daily, and since 1 July 2025 ATO interest charges are no longer tax deductible. Late reporting can also limit how a director penalty can be dealt with later.
First move: pull your statement of account to see the real balance — see ATO statement — and decide on a plan before the next due date. The ATO payment deadline page compares the options.
3. Suppliers are sending reminders — or moving you to COD
What it looks like: polite reminders become firmer. A credit limit is reduced. Then an email arrives: cash on delivery from now on.
Why it matters: trade terms are a form of finance. When a supplier pulls them, you lose roughly one cycle of purchases in working capital overnight.
First move: talk to the supplier before they talk to you. Ask what would keep terms in place. If the switch has already happened, see supplier wants COD.
4. The overdraft never comes back to zero
What it looks like: an overdraft or line of credit that used to swing between drawn and clear now sits at or near its limit all month.
Why it matters: a revolving facility that never revolves has become permanent borrowing — and it’s no longer available as a buffer for the next surprise.
First move: work out how much of the limit is “permanent” and whether that portion should be on a different structure, leaving the facility free for genuine timing gaps.
5. You’re paying bills on the due date, never before
What it looks like: every bill gets paid on the last possible day, and you check the bank balance before approving each one.
Why it matters: it means there’s no buffer left. One late customer receipt and a due date gets missed.
First move: build a 90-day deadline calendar so you can see the next pinch point before it arrives.
6. Personal money is going into the business
What it looks like: you’ve topped up the business account from savings, a credit card or a redraw on the home loan — once, then again.
Why it matters: it hides the real cash position and shifts the business’s risk onto your household. It’s also a finite source.
First move: write down how much has gone in and why. If it’s covering timing gaps, a proper business facility sized to the gap may be cleaner. If it’s covering losses, talk to your accountant about the underlying problem.
7. One customer makes up a big share of revenue
What it looks like: a single customer accounts for a third, half or more of your income.
Why it matters: if that customer pays late, changes systems, disputes an invoice or leaves, a deadline arrives with almost no warning.
First move: know that customer’s payment pattern intimately, put their receipts on your calendar at a realistic date, and keep a plan for what happens if one payment slips by a month.
8. Margins are shrinking while revenue grows
What it looks like: sales are up, but the bank balance isn’t. Costs have risen faster than prices.
Why it matters: growth consumes cash — more stock, more wages, more receivables — and thin margins mean less of each sale is left to fund it. Fast-growing businesses can run out of cash while looking successful.
First move: check gross margin by product or job, review pricing, and forecast how much working capital the next stage of growth will need. business.gov.au’s cash flow guidance has practical starting points.
9. Big fixed payments are clustering
What it looks like: a quarterly BAS, a month with three fortnightly pay runs, an annual insurance premium and a lease review all landing in the same few weeks.
Why it matters: each payment is manageable on its own. Together, they create a crunch even in a good month.
First move: map them on your calendar. Some — insurance, for example — can often be moved to instalments. The three-pay-day months guide shows which months carry an extra pay run in 2026–27.
10. You’re avoiding looking at the numbers
What it looks like: you know roughly where things stand but haven’t opened the aged payables report this month. The bookkeeper’s emails go unread.
Why it matters: it’s the most human warning sign, and the most dangerous. Problems seen early have options; problems discovered on the due date mostly don’t.
First move: fifteen minutes with the bank balance, the receivables report and the next 90 days of fixed payments. That’s all.
What happens if warning signs are ignored?
They become deadlines with less flexibility. The ATO says it may report a business tax debt to credit reporting bureaus if at least $100,000 is overdue by more than 90 days, the business has an ABN and isn’t an excluded entity, and the business isn’t effectively engaging with the ATO — with 28 days’ notice first. Effective engagement includes things like a compliant payment plan. That kind of listing can make supplier terms and future finance harder to get.
Other paths lead to supplier COD, a director penalty notice, or a pay run that can’t be met. None of these are inevitable, but each is much easier to handle with weeks of warning than days.
How many signs should worry you?
One sign on its own is often just a bad month. Two or more together — say, a slipping customer plus a late BAS — is the moment to act:
- Build a 90-day calendar and find the lowest point.
- Talk to your accountant about the underlying cause.
- Move what can be moved — supplier dates, customer payment timing.
- Look at funding for what’s left, while you still have time to compare options.
The two-week window page shows what a calm, planned approach looks like when you’ve got a little time.
What does good look like?
Businesses that rarely face cash emergencies tend to share a few habits: they invoice promptly, chase early, set aside GST and withholding as they go, keep a buffer or an undrawn facility for timing gaps, and look at a dated forecast every week. None of it is complicated. It’s mostly about seeing deadlines while there’s still time to choose.
Seeing the signs? Get ahead of the deadline
If two or three of these sound familiar, the best time to explore options is now — before the warning signs turn into a fixed date. Asking what’s possible involves no credit check. Your details aren’t shuffled around a list of lenders; one team looks at your situation and a real person calls you back.
If you send an enquiry, be straightforward about what’s happening — the ATO balance, the slow customer, the supplier situation. Honest answers are what let us match you to an option that actually helps. Or ring the Deadline Desk on 1300 752 188.
Frequently asked questions
What's the earliest sign of a cash flow problem?
Usually debtor days creeping up — customers taking longer to pay than your terms allow. It often shows up weeks before the bank balance looks worrying.
Is it a bad sign to fall behind on BAS?
It's a common one. Using the ATO as a short-term lender is easy because the money is already in your account, but general interest charge compounds daily and, from 1 July 2025, isn't tax deductible. It also limits options later if a director penalty notice is issued.
When does the ATO report business tax debts to credit bureaus?
The ATO says it may disclose a business tax debt where at least $100,000 is overdue by more than 90 days, the business has an ABN, isn't an excluded entity, and isn't effectively engaging with the ATO. It gives 28 days' notice first.
What should I do if I see several warning signs?
Build a 90-day deadline calendar to see when the crunch will hit, talk to your accountant, and look at your options — moving dates, chasing receipts, and funding — while you still have time to choose.